How renewables are changing power markets
12 May 2023 3 minute read
未来包括太阳能、风能等多样化的新能源低碳电力将继续深刻的影响着能源市场。作为电力市场的增补，新能源低碳电力有助于稳定古板燃煤燃气主导的电力市场电价。而中国将牢固其作为该行业增长的主要推动者的职位，预计占2023全球新增可再生能源装机容量的55%，欧美应寻求与中国相助，不应该把中国新能源技术、产品视作低碳战略的挑战。
低碳电力供应是能源转型中的大增长主题之一。但随着增长，电力组合将爆发深刻变革�？杀涞目稍偕茉唇晌缌Φ闹饕丛�，取代目前大大都市场合依赖的多用途和灵活的化石燃料发电。Woodmac美国分部的副主席电力与可再生能源专家克里斯·塞普尔（Chris Seiple）上个月会见了欧洲客户，并分享了他对2022年特殊事件将如何影响未来多年电力市场的看法。
Low-carbon power supply is one of the great growth themes of the energy transition. But along with growth will come a profound change in the power mix. Variable renewables will become the dominant source of electricity, displacing the versatile and flexible fossil fuel-based generation most markets rely on today. Chris Seiple, our US-based Vice Chair Power and Renewables, visited clients in Europe last month and shared his thoughts with me on how the extraordinary events of 2022 will shape power markets for years to come.
首先，2022年是低碳发电来说是一剂强心针。太阳能和陆上风电已经在本钱上具备了与其他发电来源竞争的能力，并且产能的扩大也在顺利进行中。2021年，对可再生能源的投资首次凌驾了上游的油气和天然气。随后，俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争，迅速将能源宁静推到了议程的首位。政府政策增强对海内可再生能源和电气化的支持，作为恒久解决计划的一部分。现在，可再生能源的产能提升将进入快车道。
First, 2022 was a shot in the arm for low-carbon power generation. Solar and onshore wind were already competitive on costs with other sources of generation and the scaling up of capacity was well underway. For the first time, investment in renewables exceeded upstream oil and gas in 2021. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which quickly propelled energy security to the top of the agenda. Government policy hardened in support of domestic renewables and electrification as part of the longer-term solution. The ramp-up of capacity will now move into overdrive.
政策目标是艰巨的。欧盟REPowerEU目标要求到2030年近70%的电力供应来自可再生能源。为了实现这些目标，每年新增的风能和太阳能容量将由现在的50 GW提升到100GW，这将带来巨大的投资时机。我们预计欧洲只会告竣可再生能源电力占比的65%，这个比例相比目今的45%仍然是一个巨大的变革。
The policy targets are daunting. The European Union’s REPowerEU objectives require close to 70% of its power supply from renewables in 2030. Current annual capacity additions of wind and solar of 50 GW will have to rise to over 100 GW by the end of the decade to meet these targets, presenting an enormous investment opportunity. We project that Europe will only reach 65% – still a huge change on current levels of around 45%.
企业对购电协议（PPAs）的需求不绝增长，将有助于为加速建设提供资金。企业买家的规模已经凌驾了那些只对其业务去碳化感兴趣的人。许多公司现在将可再生能源购电协议(PPAs)视为确保较少波动和有竞争力的价格的一种手段。一些公司已经开始考虑将可再生能源与储能相结合的全天候购电协议。
Growing appetite from companies for power purchase agreements (PPAs) will help finance the accelerated build-out. The universe of corporate buyers has moved beyond those just interested in decarbonising their businesses. Many companies now see renewables PPAs as a means of securing less volatile and competitive prices. Some have started to look at 24/7 PPAs with renewables twinned with energy storage.
第二，去碳化正在改变柔性输电的订价波动。古板上燃气和燃煤发电厂在柔性输电市场上是以本钱竞争的。在天燃气价格高时，煤炭更具竞争力，反之亦然。
Second, decarbonisation is changing the pricing dynamics of flexible power. Gas and coal-fired generators have traditionally competed on cost in the flexible market. At high gas prices, coal is more competitive and vice versa.
不管2022年的碳密集型燃煤电厂是否延迟关闭，在美国、欧洲和其他地方的继续退出是局势所趋。随着更多燃煤产能的退出，燃气发电的电价弹性正在消失。在没有其他灵活燃料的情况下，市场被迫转向燃气电厂的支持，险些不考虑价格问题。危害在于，电力市场被燃气价格绑架——每当发电厂在燃气市场紧张时购置燃气，电价不可制止地严重波动。
Irrespective of deferred retirals in 2022, the trend is for the continued closure of carbon-intensive coal plants in the US, Europe and elsewhere. And as more coal-fired capacity exits, the price elasticity of gas burn in power is disappearing. With no alternative flexible fuels, markets are forced to turn to gas plants for support, almost irrespective of price. The risk is that power markets become hostage to gas prices – whenever power producers move to buy gas in a tight gas market, severe electricity price volatility is inevitable.
可变可再生能源份额的不绝上升将使柔性电力更具价值。我们的模型标明，到2030年，英国的风电和太阳能发电量在某些时段将比需求横跨50%；而在其他时候，则会缺少。2021年3月欧洲12天的风旱期间，极高的电价为柔性电力未来价值提供了一个视察窗口，纵然在每天的变革中也是如此。未来极端天气事件也可能越发频繁。
The rising share of variable renewables will make flexible power more valuable. Our modelling suggests that by 2030, power output from wind and solar in Great Britain will be 50% higher than demand in some hours; at other times, there will be too little. The very high prices during Europe’s 12-day wind drought in March 2021 were a window into the future value of flexibility, even in the daily to-and-fro of variability. Extreme weather events are also likely to be more frequent in future.
电力市场需要更多的投资于柔性电厂、储能设施和互联设施，以平衡不绝变革的电网结构。增加需求侧的灵活性也将发挥重要作用。在欧洲，人们对将电池储能引入市场的关注不敷。我们预计这种情况将爆发改变，类似于为推动风能和太阳能容量增长出台的政府执法，政府将引导储能设施的开发。
Power markets will need more investment in flexible power plant, energy storage and interconnections to balance the evolving mix. Increasing demand-side flexibility will play an import role, too. In Europe, insufficient attention is paid to bringing battery storage into the market. We expect that to change, led by government mandates to develop storage similar to those driving wind and solar capacity growth.
第三，减少对中国太阳能和储能供应链依赖的政策正在迅速推进。美国膨胀削减法案已经促使�？橹圃焐绦剂肆杓�50 GW的新制造能力。欧盟的回应将通过其欧盟绿色协议工业计划和于2023年10月实施的碳疆域调理机制（CBAM）来实现。
Third, policy to reduce reliance on China in the solar and energy storage supply chains is advancing rapidly. The US Inflation Reduction Act has already led module manufacturers to announce more than 50 GW of new manufacturing capacity. The EU’s response will come through its European Green Deal Industrial Plan and the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in October 2023.
克服中国的本钱竞争力将是具有挑战性的——我们预计，中国制造的光伏面板生产本钱比欧洲制造的面板低近40%。欧洲即将到来的政策变革将使供应链治理成为可再生能源开发企业高级治理人员制定战略时的重要因素。
Overcoming China’s cost competitiveness will be challenging – we estimate that Chinese-made panels are nearly 40% cheaper to produce than European ones. The coming policy changes in Europe will make management of the supply chain a factor of strategic importance for C-suite in renewable energy developers.
最后，自从2022年消费者价格飙升后，近30年来松开治理电力市场的市场设计正在受到密切关注。主要关注的是价格制定机制的替代计划，该机制通过高化石燃料价格制定的批发价格来奖励可再生能源的低本钱供应。结构性革新已经摆在桌面上，英国正在进行电力市场安排审查，欧盟则对条约驱动的市场提出了一个越发温和的建议。如果要制止新电厂的投资缺少，澄清是必不可少的，并且要尽快执行。
Finally, the market design that has governed deregulated electricity markets for nearly 30 years ago is under close scrutiny after consumer prices soared in 2022. The primary focus is on alternatives to the price-setting mechanism that rewards even lower cost supply from renewables with the wholesale price set by high fossil fuel prices.Structural reform is on the table, with the UK’s ongoing Review of Electricity Market Arrangements and the EU’s more modest proposal of a more contract-driven market. If an investment shortfall in new plant is to be averted, clarity is essential – and soon.
随着可变再生能源供应的市场份额不绝攀升，灵活资源变得不可或缺。
Flexible resources become indispensable as variable supply’s market share climbs
